:Product: 20030905RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Sep 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A single C1 flare occurred at
05/1301Z in Region 453 (S23W56). The fast growth rate observed in
this region during the last period has now slowed. Some minor
complexity was noted in this 200 millionths beta spot group. A
relatively bright plage field is rotating on the SE limb, but there
is no spot group visible yet. The remaining active regions were
mostly stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Occasional low C-class flares are likely from Region
453.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. Solar wind
speed is in gradual decline as the associated coronal hole moves out
of a geoeffective position. Solar wind speed declined from almost
700 km/s to near 600 km/s over the past 24 hours. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through
day one as the current high speed stream subsides. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day two before the onset of a
recurrent coronal hole on day three. Expect occasional active
periods as this coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Sep 108
Predicted   06 Sep-08 Sep  110/115/115
90 Day Mean        05 Sep 126
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep  015/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep  018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep  015/015-010/012-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/30
Minor storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/40
Minor storm           15/10/20
Major-severe storm    05/01/05