:Product: 20030906RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Sep 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 453 (S23W69)
produced occasional point brightenings and some weak surging, but
was otherwise stable. New Region 455 (S16E32) was numbered today. No
other significant activity was observed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. Low C-class flares are possible from Region 453.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with very isolated
active periods. A high speed coronal hole stream that has been in
effect over the past few days continues to subside, declining to
near 550 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels through day one. A
recurrent coronal hole will move into geoeffective position late on
day two through day three and produce occasional active periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Sep 105
Predicted   07 Sep-09 Sep  105/100/095
90 Day Mean        06 Sep 126
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep  009/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep  010/012-012/012-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/40
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/50
Minor storm           05/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/10