:Product: 20030908RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Sep 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Type III
radio sweeps comprised most of today's activity.  Region 456
(S09E08) is the most complex region on the disk and was newly
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels. Isolated low level C-class flares are possible from
Region 456.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels.  A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream may produce isolated minor
storm periods through days one and two.  Activity on day two may be
further enhanced due to a possible transient passage resulting from
yesterday's long-duration C5 flare.  Day three should see a return
to predominantly unsettled conditions as the recurrent coronal hole
wanes.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Sep 099
Predicted   09 Sep-11 Sep  095/095/100
90 Day Mean        08 Sep 123
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep  003/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep  015/020-020/025-012/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/45/30
Minor storm           15/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/50/40
Minor storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/15/10