:Product: 20030909RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Sep 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels today.  Several
minor B-class flares were observed from Region 456 (S09W05) during
the period.  The remainder of the disk was quiescent throughout the
period.  Region 457 (S11E08) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly unsettled to active
levels.  A recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is responsible
for the elevated conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels through day one of the
forecast period due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
Activity on day one may be further enhanced due to a possible
transient passage resulting from the C5 flare activity seen on 7
September.  Days two and three should see a return to predominantly
unsettled conditions as the recurrent coronal hole wanes.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Sep 096
Predicted   10 Sep-12 Sep  095/100/105
90 Day Mean        09 Sep 123
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep  004/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep  020/020-012/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/30/20
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/35/25
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01