:Product: 20030910RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Sep 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at very low levels today.
Region 456 (S09W19) produced several low level B-class flares today.
This region has shown rapid spot growth over the past 24 hours.
Magnetic analysis depicts a gamma structure in the trailing polarity
of the spot cluster.  Region 457 (S11W06) remains a magnetically
simple complex with several small umbra visible in white light.  No
new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Region 456 is showing potential for C-class
flare production.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  A favorably
positioned recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is responsible
for the elevated conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to active levels through day
one of the period.  The return of quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on days two and three.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Sep 099
Predicted   11 Sep-13 Sep  105/110/110
90 Day Mean        10 Sep 122
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep  017/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep  020/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep  012/015-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01