:Product: 20030911RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Sep 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 456 (S08W32)
produce a C1 flare at 11/1454Z.  Region 456 has shown some growth
and weak polarity mixing.  This region has simplified to a Beta
magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Region 456 has the potential for C-class
flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels.  One period
of minor storm levels was observed and solar wind speed remains
above 600 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels.  High speed stream effects
are expected to continue into day one with unsettled to active
conditions.  Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two
and day three of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Sep 097
Predicted   12 Sep-14 Sep  100/105/110
90 Day Mean        11 Sep 122
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep  012/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep  014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01