:Product: 20030912RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Sep 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  The largest
flare was a B8 from Region 456 (S07W45) at 12/2000Z.  A long
duration B7 X-ray enhancement occurred at 11/2237 and was correlated
with the two disappearing solar filaments.  The first DSF was five
degrees long and lifted off around 11/2100Z near S25E05.  The second
DSF followed the first and was along the same inversion line.  This
DSF was about ten-degrees long and lifted off near S18E15.  LASCO C2
imagery indicates a partial halo CME associated with the DSF's.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  Solar wind
speed remains elevated near 600 km/s and Bz has been predominantly
northward.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels.  Activity on day one and
day two is expected to be quiet to unsettled.  CME effects are
possible on day three with activity expected to be at unsettled to
active levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Sep 094
Predicted   13 Sep-15 Sep  095/100/105
90 Day Mean        12 Sep 121
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep  010/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep  010/010-010/010-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/30
Minor storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/35
Minor storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05