:Product: 20030913RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Sep 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 456 (S07W59)
produce a C2/Sf flare at 13/0742Z.  This region has develeoped a
small delta magnetic configuration in the intermediate spots and
continues a steady growth phase.  New Region 458 (S08W32) was
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Region 456 has the potential for C-class
activity and a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The high
speed stream of the past few days has ended with solar wind speeds
back down around 450 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one of the
forecast period.  Weak CME effects are possible on day two and day
three with quiet to active levels expected.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
Class M    10/10/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Sep 096
Predicted   14 Sep-16 Sep  100/105/110
90 Day Mean        13 Sep 121
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep  010/010-012/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/35
Minor storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01