:Product: 20030914RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Sep 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 456(S08W73)
produce a C4/Sf flare at 14/0127Z.  This region appears to be in
decay but due to limb proximity analysis is unclear.  A
nineteen-degree filament lifted off at approximately 14/1837Z in the
vicinity of N26W14.  New Region 459 (S11E38) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels.  Quiet to active
levels are possible on day one and day two due expected weak CME
effects.  Active to minor storm levels are possible on day three
with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M    10/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Sep 095
Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep  095/095/100
90 Day Mean        14 Sep 121
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  006/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  012/015-015/020-025/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/40
Minor storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/10