:Product: 20030915RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Sep 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity continued low. Intermittent C-class
subflares came from Region 456 (S08W88), now nearing the west limb.
Newly assigned Region 460 (N16E75) rotated into view. Little else of
significance occurred.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to persist
at the low level.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
geosynchronous electron flux remained high.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled through 17 September. The effects
of a high speed solar wind stream are anticipated 18 September, as
active to minor storm conditions are probable.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Sep 097
Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep  100/100/100
90 Day Mean        15 Sep 120
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  003/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep  004/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  010/010-010/015-020/035
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/50
Minor storm           10/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/40/50
Minor storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/05