:Product: 20030916RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Sep 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity remained low. Frequent small x-ray
events occurred, but none exceeded the C2 level reached at 0218 UTC.
Two new regions were born on the disk. Regions 461 (N12W38) and 462
(S09W30) are both nascent C-class sunspot groups with small plage
fields.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field varied from unsettled to major storm
conditions. A slow CME passed ACE late yesterday, bringing lengthy
periods of southward IMF. The solar wind radial speed did not exceed
475 km/s. This elongated transient is still being seen at L1,
causing minor to major storming as a result. The solar source of
this CME is not well known.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next three
days. A high speed solar wind stream is due September 18, and likely
to further prolong the storming now occurring.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Sep 099
Predicted   17 Sep-19 Sep  100/100/105
90 Day Mean        16 Sep 120
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep  025/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep  020/035-025/035-020/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/55/50
Minor storm           20/30/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/55/50
Minor storm           25/35/25
Major-severe storm    05/10/05