:Product: 20030917RSGA.txt :Issued: 2003 Sep 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2003 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 456, just beyond west limb near S08, produced an M1 flare at 16/2224 UTC. Coronal loops were seen in association with the x-ray event. Few flares have occurred since then, as the disk has been quiet and stable. One new region was assigned, Region 463 (N09E74). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm levels. A brief quiet period began the interval prior to the onset of the high speed solar wind stream. The solar wind radial speed reached approximately 800 km/s at 1500 UTC. Its source is a large coronal hole located in the western solar hemisphere. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next two days, then calming to be unsettled to active by day three. The high speed stream should buffet the magnetosphere for the majority of the period. III. Event Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Sep 106 Predicted 18 Sep-20 Sep 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 17 Sep 120 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 015/037 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep 025/060 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 025/040-020/025-015/025 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 55/50/40 Minor storm 30/20/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 55/50/50 Minor storm 35/25/20 Major-severe storm 10/05/05