:Product: 20030918RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Sep 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A single C-class event, a C1 at
0801 UTC,  marked the most significant activity of the day. There
are five spotted regions on the disk and all are simple and stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. The
effects of the high speed -- 850 km/s -- solar wind continue again
today. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels early, then calm to
unsettled to active conditions by the end of the forecast interval.
The influence of the high speed solar wind stream should diminish
over the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Sep 109
Predicted   19 Sep-21 Sep  110/110/110
90 Day Mean        18 Sep 120
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep  035/061
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep  025/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep  020/035-015/025-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/40/40
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/50
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05