:Product: 20030922RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Sep 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
Region 464 (N06E49) continues to be the largest group on the disk
and showed slow growth during the past 24 hours. The region's
magnetic structure is mostly bipolar, but there is some weak
polarity mixing in the central part of the group, giving it a
beta-gamma classification. New Region 465 (S02E50) was assigned
today and is stacked just below Region 464. New Region 466 (S04E72)
rotated into view today and appears to be a small, simple sunspot
group. A CME was observed at 21/2130 UTC in LASCO-C2 coronagraph
data and was centered very close to the solar north pole. The lack
of corresponding disk signatures suggest that this was a back-sided
event.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
There continues to be, however, a slight chance for an isolated
M-class flare from Region 464.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels during the past
24 hours. There was an interval of quiet to unsettled level activity
from 21/2100 UTC through 22/0300 UTC, but conditions became
disturbed (unsettled to active) from 0300 UTC through the end of the
day. The activity is being driven by a continuing high speed solar
wind stream associated with a coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next two days. Conditions
should be predominantly unsettled by the third day as the high speed
wind stream is expected to be significantly reduced by that time.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Sep 123
Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep  125/120/120
90 Day Mean        22 Sep 120
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  019/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  015/020-015/020-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/20