:Product: 20030923RSGA.txt :Issued: 2003 Sep 23 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2003 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Regions 464 (N04E36) and 459 (S11W85) have been the most active, but have not produced any significant flare activity. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 464 continues to show an increase in complexity and size, but currently has only a low to fair chance of generating any significant flare activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. A coronal hole induced high speed stream continues to be geoeffective, causing minor disruptions in the Earth's magnetic field. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet to active. The coronal hole which has induced the current high speed stream will continue to be geoeffective for at least the next two days, with a chance for isolated active to minor storm levels at high latitudes for the next three days. III. Event Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Sep 125 Predicted 24 Sep-26 Sep 125/125/125 90 Day Mean 23 Sep 120 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep 017/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 015/020-015/015-012/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 10/10/05 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 20/20/20