:Product: 20030925RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Sep 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels today.  Region 464
(N04E09) produced several B and C-class flares during the period.
This region has become more complex during the past 24 hours.
Intermediate spots indicate that a gamma structure is present.  The
remainder of the numbered regions were fairly quiet during the
period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Due to the growing complexity of Region 464, there may
be a chance of an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has ranged from active to minor storm levels.
A favorably positioned high speed coronal hole stream is responsible
for the elevated conditions.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly active levels due to the high speed
stream effects.  The disappearing solar filament from yesterday and
the associated ejecta may further enhance the geomagnetic field,
pushing activity into minor storm levels with isolated periods of
major storming possible on day two of the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Sep 133
Predicted   26 Sep-28 Sep  135/130/130
90 Day Mean        25 Sep 120
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep  027/033
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep  025/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  012/015-020/030-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/45/40
Minor storm           15/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/15/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/50
Minor storm           15/40/30
Major-severe storm    10/20/10