:Product: 20030926RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Sep 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 464 (N04W07)
continues to grow and produce a series of low-level flare activity.
The disappearing solar filament which occurred yesterday at 0534 UTC
is apparently not Earth-directed, and should not impact as
previously expected.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
low.  Region 464 does harbor a slight chance for isolated M-class
flare activity, and an even slighter chance for an X-class event.
By the end of the day, it will reach a position which makes it a
very slight threat to produce an energetic proton event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels.  A
coronal hole, which has induced a high-speed solar wind stream for
the last few days, is in its final stages, but continues to impact
the Earth's magnetic field.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the remainder
of today and into tomorrow.  Then it is expected to drop off to
quiet to unsettled with an isolated period of active for later in
day two and into day three.  The high-speed stream currently
impacting the Earth's magnetic field will continue to wane, but
still poses a threat to spike for a short period during day two.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Sep 131
Predicted   27 Sep-29 Sep  130/130/125
90 Day Mean        26 Sep 120
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep  016/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep  020/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep  020/030-015/020-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/10