:Product: 20030927RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Sep 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 464 has produced
several C-class flares, including a C1.3/Sf at 27/1143 UTC and a
C1.3/Sf at 1204 UTC.  This Region is stable in size and magnetic
complexity.  New Region 469 (S09W24) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 464 has the potential to produce C-class and isolated M-class
flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions.  Solar
wind speed from a coronal hole in geoeffective position continued to
decrease to below 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions all three days.
Isolated minor storm conditions are possible day one due to the last
remaining effects of the coronal hole passing out of geoeffective
position.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Sep 130
Predicted   28 Sep-30 Sep  130/125/125
90 Day Mean        27 Sep 120
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep  011/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep  012/020-012/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           04/04/04
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/15/10