:Product: 20030928RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Sep 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 464 has grown in
complexity, and produced several long-duration C-class flares,
including a C2.3 at 28/1428 UTC and a C6.8/Sf at 28/1558 UTC.   An
11-degree filament at N56E01 erupted sometime between 27/2318 and
28/1359 UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 464 has become more complex and may produce C-
and M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.  Solar wind speeds
continue to decrease to below 400 km/s as a coronal hole leaves
geoeffective position.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Sep 137
Predicted   29 Sep-01 Oct  125/125/125
90 Day Mean        28 Sep 119
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep  013/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct  012/015-012/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/10