:Product: 20030929RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Sep 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 464 continues to
produce numerous C-class flares, including a long duration C3.8/Sf
at 29/2004 UTC. The region may also have produced an impulsive C5.1
at 29/1610 UTC, although the flare is not optically correlated.  A
24 degree filament at S20W28 erupted between 2219 and 2319 UTC on
the 28th.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 464 may produce C- or M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one.  There is a slight chance that a
CME associated with an erupting filament observed on 28 Sep may
cause unsettled to active conditions on days two and three.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Sep 135
Predicted   30 Sep-02 Oct  130/130/125
90 Day Mean        29 Sep 121
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep  002/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct  005/008-010/015-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/40/40
Minor storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/15/15