:Product: 20030930RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Sep 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 464 (N04W62) was
responsible for numerous C-class flares, including a C5.4/1f at
29/2146 UTC.  New Region 471 (S07E63) was numbered today.  It
emerged from behind the east limb and produced a C4.9/Sf at 30/2021
UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 464 has the potential for C- and M-class
flares.  Region 471 may also produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels.  There exists an isolated chance
of unsettled to active conditions from a CME arrival related to an
erupting filament on 28 Sep.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Sep 133
Predicted   01 Oct-03 Oct  130/125/125
90 Day Mean        30 Sep 121
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep  004/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct  010/015-010/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05