:Product: 20031001RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Oct 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 464 (N05W73)
produced an M1/1f flare at 01/0451Z. Several other minor C-class
flares were observed from this F-type, beta-gamma group as it
approaches the west limb. A long duration C1 flare and filament
eruption were observed in Region 470 (S12E18) at 01/1952Z. Region
471 (S08E53), a moderate size group with some magnetic complexity,
produced considerable surging and plage fluctuations, but no
significant flare activity. New Region 472 (S23W02) was numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a small chance for an M-class flare from
Regions 464 or 471.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Extended periods of
southward IMF were observed this period, but the potential impact on
the geomagnetic field was offset by the very low solar wind speeds
(260 -300 km/s).
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active periods at high latitudes are possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M    30/20/15
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Oct 137
Predicted   02 Oct-04 Oct  135/130/125
90 Day Mean        01 Oct 121
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep  003/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct  010/015-008/010-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01