:Product: 20031002RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Oct 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 464 (N05W86) produced a
C7/1f flare with minor centimetric bursts at 02/0656Z. This region
continues to produce mostly minor C-class flares as it approaches
the west limb. Region 471 (S08E42), which continues to develop in
both size and magnetic complexity, produced a C4 flare at 02/1611Z.
Regular plage fluctuations and surge activity were observed in this
region throughout the period. No significant changes or activity
were noted in the remaining active regions.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a small chance for an M-class flare from Region 471.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
levels at the beginning of the period. Solar wind IMF signatures are
consistent with a transient passage, but solar wind speed has
remained quite low (300 - 400 km/s); consequently, geomagnetic field
impact was minimal.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Oct 125
Predicted   03 Oct-05 Oct  125/125/120
90 Day Mean        02 Oct 120
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct  008/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  008/012-005/010-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01