:Product: 20031003RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Oct 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Occasional low C-class flares
were observed this period from Region 471 (S08E35). This region
contains a moderately complex beta-gamma spot group. The lead spots
in this group were redefined as a separate active region and
assigned as Region 473 (S07E20). No other significant activity was
noted this period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 471 is the only region with any real potential for C-class
flares, and just a small chance for an M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active with an isolated
minor storm period between 03/0300-0600Z. Solar wind speed is
slightly elevated (450 - 500 km/s) and IMF Bz is varying between +5
and -5 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels. Predominantly quiet
to unsettled levels are expected on days one and two with isolated
active periods possible due to weak coronal hole flow. Mostly
unsettled to active periods are likely on day three as the coronal
hole high speed flow becomes more pronounced.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Oct 120
Predicted   04 Oct-06 Oct  120/120/115
90 Day Mean        03 Oct 120
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct  004/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct  012/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct  005/010-005/010-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/40
Minor storm           10/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/10