:Product: 20031004RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Oct 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 471 (S08E22)
produced an M1/Sf flare at 04/1547Z. This moderately complex region
has not shown much change over the past 24 hours and was responsible
for most of the low C-class flares this period. Old Region 464 (N05,
L=358), which is now behind the west limb, is still quite active,
producing a C2 flare and CME at 04/1317Z. New Region 474 (S14W49)
was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 471 is expected to continue producing C-class
flares and possibly an isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period between 04/0600-0900Z. Solar wind speed remains slightly
elevated, but the IMF Bz was mostly northward.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through day one. A high speed
coronal hole stream will likely produce unsettled to active levels
on days two and three. Isolated minor storm periods are possible on
both days.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M    20/20/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Oct 119
Predicted   05 Oct-07 Oct  120/115/115
90 Day Mean        04 Oct 120
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct  011/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct  008/010-015/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/35
Minor storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/45/45
Minor storm           05/20/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/10