:Product: 20031005RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Oct 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to low levels today.  Region
471 (S08E09) was responsible for most of the recorded activity
during the period.  Multiple B and C-class flares occurred from this
region and the gamma portion near the center of the spot cluster
remains intact.  This region continues to show signs of having a
moderately complex magnetic field although some decrease in
penumbral coverage was noted during the interval.  Region 475
(S22E47) was newly numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 471 has the potential of producing isolated
M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels through the period.
Isolated minor storm conditions are possible in the nighttime
sectors for the first two days due to a recurrent high speed coronal
hole stream.  Day three should see a return to predominantly
unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Oct 110
Predicted   06 Oct-08 Oct  105/105/105
90 Day Mean        05 Oct 120
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct  005/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct  003/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct  015/020-015/020-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/45/35
Minor storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    15/10/05