:Product: 20031006RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Oct 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels today.
Region 471 (S08W04) produced only low level B-class flares today.
No significant changes were seen in the magnetic complexity or the
penumbral coverage during the period.  The gamma magnetic structure
remains intact.  Regions 476 (S16E12) and 477 (S15E63) were newly
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  There is a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare
from the moderately complex Region 471.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to isolated active levels.
The solar wind speeds increased to 600 km/s due to a recurrent high
speed coronal hole stream.  The Bz component of the IMF remained
north throughout the majority of the day.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated active
conditions are possible on day one due to a recurrent high speed
coronal hole stream.  The remainder of the period should see
predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Oct 112
Predicted   07 Oct-09 Oct  110/110/105
90 Day Mean        06 Oct 120
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  004/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  012/015-010/012-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01