:Product: 20031007RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Oct 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to low levels today.  Region
471 (S08W18) produced the largest flare of the period, a C1.8 x-ray
event that occurred at 07/1743 UTC, along with numerous lesser
B-class flares.  This region continues to show a gamma structure
near the central portion of the spot cluster.  A slight increase in
penumbral coverage was noted today. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Activity is expected to be at low
levels. Region 471 remains capable of producing an isolated M-class
flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.  A
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is responsible for the
elevated conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active conditions as the high speed
stream begins to wane on the first day of the period.  Days two and
three should see predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Oct 112
Predicted   08 Oct-10 Oct  110/110/105
90 Day Mean        07 Oct 119
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct  010/012-008/010-006/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01