:Product: 20031008RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Oct 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to low levels today.  Region
471 (S08W31) was responsible for all of today's recorded activity
and produced several B and C-class flares during the past 24 hours.
The largest was a C3/Sf that occurred at 07/2357 UTC.  White light
showed a slight, yet steady increase in penumbral coverage during
the period.  This region continues to exhibit a gamma structure near
the center of the spot cluster.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels.  Region 471 has a slight chance of producing an
isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is in the waning stage.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the majority of
the period.  Day three may see elevated conditions due to a solar
sector boundary crossing.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Oct 113
Predicted   09 Oct-11 Oct  110/105/105
90 Day Mean        08 Oct 118
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct  008/010-006/010-010/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01