:Product: 20031009RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Oct 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  The largest
flare was an optically uncorrelated B8 at 1510Z.  Region 471
(S08W44) decreased in area coverage and has simplified to a beta
magnetic configuration.  Region 478 (N10W06) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Region 471 has the potential for C-class
flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels with one
period of isolated active conditions during local night time hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomanetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Oct 111
Predicted   10 Oct-12 Oct  105/105/100
90 Day Mean        09 Oct 119
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  006/010-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01