:Product: 20031010RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Oct 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 471 (S08W57)
produced a C2/Sf flare at 09/2356Z.  Region 471 continues to decay
and is now down to 90 millionths in area coverage.  No significant
changes or activity were noted in the remaining active regions.  New
Region 479 (N24E63) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels.  The onset of a
coronal hole high speed stream is expected on day three with minor
storm conditions possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M    05/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Oct 112
Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct  105/100/100
90 Day Mean        10 Oct 119
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  004/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  006/010-006/010-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/40
Minor storm           05/05/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/55
Minor storm           05/05/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/15