:Product: 20031011RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Oct 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  No significant
changes were observed in any active region, and no new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Region 471 (S07W70) may produce C-class
flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one, with an
increase to active and isolated minor storm conditions possible on
days two and three due to the effects of a coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M    05/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Oct 106
Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct  100/100/105
90 Day Mean        11 Oct 118
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  005/010-010/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/40
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/30
Minor storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/10/15