:Product: 20031012RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Oct 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Only one minor
B-class flare was observed during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with isolated active
conditions possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Oct 098
Predicted   13 Oct-15 Oct  095/100/100
90 Day Mean        12 Oct 119
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  010/015-015/020-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/10