:Product: 20031013RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  The few spotted
regions on the solar disk remain stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.  The solar
wind speed has shown a slow steady increase during the period from
around 300 km/s to current velocities of 500 km/s and the Bz ranged
from +/- 10 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels for 14 October.  Active
to minor storm conditions are expected on 15-16 October with the
arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Oct 094
Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct  095/100/100
90 Day Mean        13 Oct 118
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  015/020-020/030-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/45/45
Minor storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/15/15