:Product: 20031014RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Oct 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  The two spotted
regions on the solar disk are stable and have not produced any
significant activity during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm conditions.
The elevated activity is a result of the continued rise in the solar
wind velocity and sustained southward Bz.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately at active to minor storm conditions
with isolated major storm conditions possible.  These effects are
expected due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Oct 092
Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct  100/100/105
90 Day Mean        14 Oct 115
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  012/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct  025/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  025/040-025/030-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/45/45
Minor storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/15