:Product: 20031015RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Oct 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  A new region was
numbered today as Region 480 (N20W26).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm conditions with
isolated major storm conditions at high latitudes.  These effects
are the result of a coronal hole high speed stream.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm conditions for 16-17
October.  Unsettled to active levels are expected for 18 October.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Oct 096
Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct  100/105/105
90 Day Mean        15 Oct 117
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  033/048
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct  030/042
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  025/030-020/030-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/25
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/45/35
Minor storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/10