:Product: 20031016RSGA.txt :Issued: 2003 Oct 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2003 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today's flare activity consisted of a few B-class events. There are currently only two, small sunspot groups on the solar disk. Some minor surging and brightenings were observed on East limb at about N18. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. Solar wind data show the continuation of a high speed stream associated with a favorably positioned coronal hole. There was a gradual decreasing tendency in the velocities today, with initial values around 620 km/s decreasing to around 560 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active for the next 24 hours as the high speed solar wind stream continues. A slight decline to unsettled to active is expected on day two, and predominantly unsettled levels are expected on day three. III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Oct 095 Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 16 Oct 117 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 022/042 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 025/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 020/025-015/020-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/25 Minor storm 25/20/15 Major-severe storm 10/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 25/30/35 Minor storm 35/30/25 Major-severe storm 25/20/10