:Product: 20031017RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Oct 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Today's largest flares
were a B9 at 0701 UTC from newly numbered Region 482 (N16E62), and a
long-duration B8 at 0932 UTC from behind east limb at about N03.
Newly numbered Region 481 (S08W17) emerged on the disk today. Solar
imagery suggests that there are additional active regions close to
east limb which will be rotating into view soon.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class flare
sometime during the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
earth continues to be under the influence of a high-speed solar wind
stream. The stream continues to decline slowly as the initial speeds
around 560 km/s decreased down to about 520 km/s by the end of the
period. The interplanetary magnetic field showed regular oscillations
and had a weakly negative Bz component on average during the past 24
hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours. Unsettled
levels are expected to prevail for the second and third days.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Oct 099
Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct  105/110/110
90 Day Mean        17 Oct 116
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  016/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct  020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  015/020-010/015-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/15/15