:Product: 20031020RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Oct 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low to moderate.  Region 484
(N06E41) has increased again to 1500 millionths with over 56
sunspots and a strong Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration.  It
has produced several C-class flares and a long-duration M-class
flare at 0722 UTC.  Further analysis of a CME which occurred 18
October around 1830 UTC indicates that a faint portion was
Earth-directed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  There's a slight chance for another isolated X-class
flare and an even lesser chance of proton activity from Region 484.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at low to minor storm levels.  Another
favorably positioned coronal hole is perpetuating the high speed
solar wind stream, and is continuing to keep the geomagnetic field
disturbed.  The interplanetary magnetic field has settled to a low
value of around 8 nT, which is keeping the overall disturbance at a
maximum of minor storm levels.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 24
hours, dropping to mostly low with a chance for isolated periods of
minor storming during day two.  On day three, the faintly
Earth-directed CME from 18 October should impact the magnetic field,
and is likely to increase activity to mostly active to minor
storming, with a chance for an isolated period of major storming.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Oct 135
Predicted   21 Oct-23 Oct  130/130/130
90 Day Mean        20 Oct 115
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct  022/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct  020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  025/030-015/020-020/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/10/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/10/10