:Product: 20031021RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Oct 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  There has been a
steady series of C-class flares and a single M1.0 at 21/0827 UTC.
Region 484 (N05E26) continues to grow, but at a lesser rate than
yesterday.  The region is now 1650 millionths with at least a 50%
increase in magnetic intensity.  A region just beyond the East limb,
generated a strong CME at approximately 21/0300 UTC, but does not
appear to be Earth-directed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
moderate.  Region 484, and the new Region approaching the East limb,
are a combined threat to continue to generate C-class activity, with
an occasional M-class flare.  There is a slight chance for an
isolated X-class event, and an even lesser chance for a
proton-producing flare.  By day three, Region 484 will near central
meridian, and become a slightly higher threat for producing a flare
event which could generate protons at near-Earth.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels.  A
favorably positioned coronal hole is supporting a high-speed solar
wind stream, which is in turn supporting elevated magnetic activity
at Earth.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next three
days.  The coronal hole will proceed out of geoeffective range
around the second day, but a faint shock associated with a CME which
occurred on the 19th should lightly impact Earth, once again
elevating magnetic activity on day three.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/15
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Oct 152
Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct  150/155/160
90 Day Mean        21 Oct 114
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  020/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct  028/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  020/025-020/020-025/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor storm           30/30/35
Major-severe storm    10/10/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           35/30/35
Major-severe storm    15/10/15