:Product: 20031022RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Oct 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to high levels today.  The
disk and limb were very active during the period.  Region 486
(S16E81) which was newly numbered today, produced several M-class
flares over the interval.  The largest were an M9.8 x-ray event that
occurred at 22/2007 UTC, an M3.7, and two M1.7's.  Region 484
(N04E13) produced an M1.4/Sn at 1511 UTC and an M1.2/Sn at 1601 UTC.
Moreover, 2 separate filament eruptions were seen on SOHO/EIT
imagery from the vicinity of this region spawning a partial halo CME
that appears to be Earth directed.  Magnetic field remains
extremely complex, a beta-gamma-delta (with several delta
structures) through this north-south oriented spot cluster.
A slight growth in penumbral coverage was noted during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels.  Regions 484 and 486 are both capable of
producing isolated major flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels
today.  A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is responsible
for the elevated conditions.  The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly active levels through day one of the
forecast period.  The partial halo CME from today is expected to
arrive mid-day on the 24th of October and may produce periods of
major storming.  Day three should see a return to unsettled to
active conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     15/15/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Oct 154
Predicted   23 Oct-25 Oct  160/165/170
90 Day Mean        22 Oct 116
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct  028/039
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct  020/038
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  020/030-040/045-015/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor storm           25/40/20
Major-severe storm    10/25/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/25/40
Minor storm           35/40/25
Major-severe storm    15/30/10