:Product: 20031023RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Oct 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was at high levels again today.  Region
486 (S16E70) produced a major flare at 23/0835 UTC;  it was an X5/1b
event, with an associated Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep that
had an estimated shock velocity of 967 km/s.  An associated CME was
also seen on SOHO/LASCO imagery.  A second major flare from this
region occurred at 23/2004 UTC, which was an impulsive X1/1n flare.
This region is just rotating into view on the southeast limb, and is
obviously a very large group, with a complex beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration.  Region 484 (N04W00) was fairly active
producing several M-class flares today.  The largest was an M3/1n
event that occurred at 23/0708 UTC.  This region continues to depict
a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure.  No new regions were
numbered today.  The F10 value is estimated and is based on the
Penticton morning reading due to a flare enhancement during the
reading of the noon value.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
high levels.  Regions 484 and 486 are both very capable of producing
major flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit were at high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from active to major storm levels for the forecast
period.  These elevated conditions are expected as a result of the
partial halo CME on 22/0754 UTC and from the X5/1b flare at 23/0835
UTC.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M    90/90/90
Class X    50/50/50
Proton     25/30/35
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Oct 183
Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct  190/195/195
90 Day Mean        23 Oct 114
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  020/033
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  040/050-040/050-030/050
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/40
Minor storm           40/40/30
Major-severe storm    30/30/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           40/40/40
Major-severe storm    40/40/40