:Product: 20031025RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Oct 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 484 (N04W28)
produced three M-class flares, the strongest being a M1.7/Sf at
25/0553 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep.  At 24/0446 UTC,
Region 486 produced an M1.2/2n with an associated CME with a speed
of approximately 585 km/s.  This CME did not appear to be
earth-directed.  Both regions maintained their magnetic complexity
and grew slightly in size.  Region 486 is now observed at 2200 mils.
A 10-degree filament erupted at S24W41 sometime between 24/2342 and
25/1417 UTC.  New Region 487 at N13E72 was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.  Regions 484 and 486 are expected to produce
M-class and isolated X-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.  Residual effects
from yesterday's transient arrival continue to cause occasional
active conditions.  Solar wind speed has decreased steadily to about
500 km/s, and Bz continues to maintain a consistent northward
orientation.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active throughout the period, with isolated
minor storm conditions possible on day one.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M    85/85/85
Class X    40/40/40
Proton     10/15/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Oct 222
Predicted   26 Oct-28 Oct  210/210/200
90 Day Mean        25 Oct 119
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct  028/034
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  020/025-015/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    15/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           40/40/40
Major-severe storm    25/20/20