:Product: 20031101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Nov 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels today.  Region
488 (N08W55) produced two M-class flares during the period; an M1
x-ray flare at 01/0852Z and a second M1 x-ray flare at 01/1751Z.
Due to insufficient data from LASCO imagery it is unknown if there
is any associated CME activity.  This region has changed little
during the period and continues to depict a very complex
beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure.  White light areal coverage is
at 1610 millionths.  Region 486 (S17W49) continues to be
considerable in size and complexity although it only managed to
produced lesser C-class flare activity during the period.  Slight,
yet continued decay was observed over the past 24 hours of penumbral
coverage in white light analysis.  This region is still very
impressive and continues to exhibit a very complex beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration.  Much of the remainder of the disk and limb
were relatively quiescent today.  No new regions were numbered today
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels.  Regions 486 and 488 are both capable of
producing major flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.  Solar
wind speeds have gradually decreased from the start of the period,
approximately 850 km/s to 600 km/s (at the time of this writing)
while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has
remained consistently northward during the period.  The greater than
10 MeV proton fluxes at geosynchronous orbit that had two distinct
maximum measurements (29,000 pfu at 29/0615Z; from the X17 flare and
3,300 pfu at 30/1935Z; from the X10 flare) resulting from subsequent
days major flare activity has ended at 01/1310Z.  The greater than 2
MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels.
Isolated minor storm conditions are possible on day one due to the
elevated solar wind speeds.  The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes
at geosynchronous orbit remain elevated and could again reach alert
threshold with continued major flare activity.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M    70/70/60
Class X    35/30/25
Proton     50/35/15
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Nov 210
Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov  200/190/175
90 Day Mean        01 Nov 130
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  073/093
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov  020/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  010/015-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05