:Product: 20031102RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Nov 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to high levels today.  Region
486 (S17W62) continues to exhibit its very impressive
characteristics by producing another in a series of major events as
it unleashed an X8/2b flare at 02/1725Z.  A Tenflare, Type II (with
an estimated shock velocity of 1691 km/s) and IV radio sweeps, along
with strong radio bursts at all frequencies were associated in this
event.  Initial SOHO/LASCO imagery indicates another in the sequence
of Earth bound full halo CME's that this region has produced.  An M3
x-ray flare also occurred in this region during the period which
produced an associated Type II radio sweep with a estimated shock
velocity of 1079 km/s and a west limb CME.  Consensus indicates that
this region underwent a resurgence in penumbral coverage with
2160 millionths of areal coverage.  Several complex beta-gamma-delta
magnetic structures remain evident in this group.  Region 488
(N08W68) produced minor C-class flare activity today and has
undergone little change during the period.  No new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.
Isolated minor storm conditions were likely due to the continued
elevated solar winds speeds and the occasional southward Bz in the
interplanetary magnetic field.  The greater than 10 MeV proton
fluxes reached alert levels at 02/1105Z and was initially believed to
have been from the M3 event earlier in the period (early maximum was
30 pfu).  Since the X8 event they have seen a maximum of 797 at
02/2130Z.  The greater than 100 MeV proton fluxes have also reached
alert levels due to the X8 event; at 1740 (15 minutes from flare
maximum) they pushed through event threshold and have since seen a
maximum of 49 pfu.  A polar cap absorption event is in progress.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to severe storm levels beginning on day
one near the middle of the day and continuing through day two due to
the full halo CME that resulted from the X8 flare today.  Day
three may see a return to unsettled to active levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
Class M    90/90/70
Class X    75/75/50
Proton     99/75/50
PCAF       in progress
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Nov 190
Predicted   03 Nov-05 Nov  180/170/150
90 Day Mean        02 Nov 131
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov  016/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov  015/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov  080/120-130/160-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/40
Minor storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/55/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/50
Minor storm           40/20/30
Major-severe storm    40/70/20