:Product: 20031104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Nov 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was at high levels today.  Region 486
(S17W89) has been rotating off the visible disk today.  Even so, as
a parting display of it's massive size and complicated magnetic
structure, it managed to produce one of the largest x-ray flares on
record, an X17(plus)/3b flare at 04/1929Z.  The x-ray sensor on GOES
was saturated at X17.4 between 04/1944 and 1956Z.  Intense radio
busts were observed at all frequencies, a Tenflare (at 20000 sfu's),
and Type II (estimated shock velocity of 1268 km/s) and Type
IV radio sweeps.  Indications of an extremely fast moving
(2301 km/s) full halo CME were seen on SOHO/LASCO imagery.  This
region also produced an M2 flare at 04/0556Z and an M1 flare at
04/1349Z.  Region 488 (N08W95) produced an M3 x-ray flare as it
rotated off the visible disk earlier in the period.  Region
497 (N10W45) was newly numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
high levels.  Region 486 is still capable of producing an isolated
major flare even though it will have rotated off the visible disk
throughout day one.  Days two and three may see moderate levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm levels.  A shock
passage occurred at the ACE satellite at approximately 04/0600Z due
to the CME from the X8 event on 02 Nov.  A sudden impulse of 72 nT
was observed by the Boulder magnetometer at 04/0627Z. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained north though
most of the day; however, an isolated period of severe storm
conditions were observed from 04/0900 to 1200Z.  The greater than 10
MeV proton fluxes at geosynchronous orbit have been on a steady
decrease through the period and continue above alert levels; the
event began at 02/1105Z, and had a maximum of 1570 pfu's which was
observed at 03/0815Z.  The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels.
Isolated minor storm conditions are possible during day one due
to the elevated wind speeds from the shock passage from earlier
today.  Day two's activity may stay enhanced due to a glancing blow
from the X17 (plus) flare from today.  The greater than 10 MeV
proton fluxes are currently above alert levels and are expected to
be further enhanced due to today's X17 (plus) event.  The greater
than 100 MeV fluxes are also expected to rise above alert levels
early on day one of the period due to the aforementioned activity.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M    70/30/10
Class X    40/10/01
Proton     99/50/25
PCAF       in progress
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Nov 168
Predicted   05 Nov-07 Nov  140/130/125
90 Day Mean        04 Nov 132
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov  015/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov  020/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  020/030-020/030-010/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/45/25
Minor storm           35/35/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/10