:Product: 20031105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Nov 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was at high levels.  An impulsive M5/Sf
flare was observed at 05/1052Z (S16 on the west limb).  Region 486
(S17, L=284), which just rotated beyond the west limb is the most
likely source.  An M1/Sf flare at 05/0237Z was also observed at S16
on the west limb.  Yesterday's X17-plus flare began at 04/1929Z and
saturated the GOES X-ray sensor from 04/1944Z to 04/1956Z.  Analysis
of available data from this event yield an estimated peak flux of
X28 at about 04/1950Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 486 still has the potential for
M-class activity from beyond the west limb.  By day two and three,
activity is expected to be at low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  A greater
than 10 MeV proton event from the X28 flare began at 04/2225Z,
reached a peak value of 353 pfu at 05/0600Z, and is currently in
progress, but declining.  A greater than 100 MeV proton event began
at 05/0535Z, reached a peak value of 1.3 pfu at 05/0540Z, and ended
at 05/0705Z.  A polar cap adsorption event is in progress.  The GOES
EPS instrument for greater than 2 MeV electron measurement at
geosynchronous orbit is exhibiting proton contamination at this
time, making the 2 MeV electron flux data unreliable.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels.  The CME from the X28
flare on 04 November is expected to arrive late on day one or early
on day two with isolated active to minor storm levels possible.  The
greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end on day two of
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M    25/10/01
Class X    10/01/01
Proton     99/50/05
PCAF       in progress
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Nov 114
Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov  110/105/100
90 Day Mean        05 Nov 131
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  020/031
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  020/020-015/020-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/20
Minor storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/45/25
Minor storm           35/35/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/10