:Product: 20031106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Nov 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  After nearly
three weeks of intense solar activity, the visible surface of the
sun is almost spotless.  Region 495 (S21W76) is the only spot group
visible and has exhibited little change from yesterday.  A long
duration B5 X-ray enhancement was observed at 06/1831Z and EIT
imagery suggests a source from beyond the west limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to range
from very low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels.  The shock
from the X28 flare on 04 November reached Earth at 06/1937Z.  A 31nT
sudden impulse was observed on the Boulder magnetometer and activity
reached minor storm levels.  The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field, as measured by the NASA/ACE spacecraft initially
turned south to -7 nT and total field measurement reached 15 nT.  A
greater than 10 MeV proton event continues with current flux levels
at 18 pfu and slowly decreasing.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm
levels possible.  Active levels with isolated minor storm levels are
expected on day one.  By day two and three activity is expected to
return to quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater than 10 MeV proton
event is expected to end early on day one.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M    10/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     50/10/05
PCAF       in progress
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Nov 098
Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov  095/090/090
90 Day Mean        06 Nov 131
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  004/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  020/020-010/015-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/25
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/25/25
Minor storm           35/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/10