:Product: 20031107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Nov 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  A long duration
X-ray enhancement was observed at 0318Z reaching the B8 level.  Two
CME's were observed in LASCO imagery and determined to be back
sided.  The visible disk is almost spotless with Region 495 (S18W89)
the only spot group observed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Continued low level X-ray enhancements are possible due
to back side activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 10 MeV proton event that began at 02/1105Z and reached a peak
value of 1570 pfu on 03/0815Z, ended today at 07/1230Z.  A small
enhancement of greater than 10 MeV proton flux was observed at
around 07/1730Z but is currently below threshold.  The source of
this enhancement is likely activity from the backside.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storms
levels possible.  Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 08-09
November.  A returning coronal hole is expected to rotate into a
geoeffective position on 10 November with active to isolated minor
storm levels possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Nov 091
Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov  090/090/095
90 Day Mean        07 Nov 130
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov  006/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  008/015-010/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/15