:Product: 20031108RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Nov 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Two new regions emerged
today: Region 498 (S03W26) and Region 499 (S17W19). Both of these
regions are small and simple. A 20 degree filament running from
S10W01 to S20W20 faded between 07/2200 UTC and 08/0200 UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels during
the past 24 hours. A noticeable increase was seen in solar wind
magnetic field and density, beginning around 1000-1200 UTC which
transitioned activity from quiet levels to unsettled levels. The
signatures appear to be consistent with a co-rotating interaction
region which presages the onset of an expected high-speed coronal
hole solar wind stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes were
enhanced but below threshold today, and showed a steady downward
trend during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for 09-10 November as the
coronal-hole driven disturbance is expected to commence. Mostly
active conditions are expected to prevail on 11 November.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Nov 093
Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov  095/095/095
90 Day Mean        08 Nov 130
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  015/015-015/020-020/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/35
Minor storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           20/20/35
Major-severe storm    10/10/20